The Dow Jones Industrial Average is no longer a laggard. Our technical analysis suggests a new bullish uptrend is in progress as it breaks to a new all-time high.
Chart of the week – Potential bullish catch-up for US Wall Street 30
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the laggard among the four major US benchmark stock indices since 7 April 2025, following the ex-post announcement of “US Liberation Day” tariffs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded a gain of 18.4% from 7 April 2025 to last Friday, 15 August 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 (26.3%), S&P 500 (27.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (36%) over the same period (see Fig. 1). In addition, the technology-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have managed to scale fresh all-time highs since late June 2025
Interestingly, the laggard, Dow Jones Industrial Average, managed to catch up last week, recording a rally of 2.2% from 11 August 2025 to 15 August 2025, surpassing the S&P 500 (1.2%) and the Nasdaq 100 (0.8%). (see Fig. 2).
Fig. 1: Performances of major global benchmark stock indices from 7 Apr 2025 to 15 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)
Fig. 2: Performances of major global benchmark stock indices from 11 Aug 2025 to 15 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)
Let’s now take a deep dive into the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) from a technical analysis perspective.
Last Friday, 15 August, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index has propelled to a new all-time intraday high of 45,283 during the Asian session, breaking above the previous 43,100 record high in December 2024, before it pulled back and closed at 45,032 at the end of the US session.
Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 18 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Several technical elements support a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence that is in progress for the US Wall Street 30 CFD since its 1 August 2025 low of 43,335 (see Fig. 3).
Firstly, its price actions have been oscillating above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 12 August 2025, reinforcing a medium-term uptrend phase.
Secondly, the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a bullish momentum condition as it has hovered above a parallel ascending support since 1 August 2025.
Lastly, the financial sector has the largest weightage of around 27% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Hence, a further steepening behaviour of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) from 0.4% on 1 August 2025 to a three-month high of 0.6% as of last Friday, 15 August 2025, may improve the net interest income margins of US banks, in turn, triggering a positive feedback loop into the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Bullish bias with 44,420 as the key medium-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, with the next resistances coming in at 45,660/45,730, and 46,180 (Fibonacci extensions).
However, failure to hold at the 44,420 key support negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next medium-term support at 43,925 (also the 50-day moving average). A break below it may trigger a deeper corrective decline to expose the major support zone of 43,335/43,130 (also the 200-day moving average).
