Technical analysis of USDCHF. Examining the impact of safe-haven flows and bearish technical signals. Our analysis highlights key support and resistance levels.
Chart of the week - USDCHF safe-haven demand and bearish outlook.
The Swiss franc has mirrored the Japanese yen over the past week, with both currencies appreciating notably against the US dollar amid heightened safe-haven demand. Based on a 5-day rolling performance basis as of 23 May, the US dollar has shed -1.8% against the CHF and -2% against the JPY (see Fig. 1).
Also, they tend to outperform against other major currencies when there is a sudden bout of risk-aversion activities, as the earlier risk-on spillover effect from the 90-day US-China tariffs truce ex-post 12 May dissipated.
Last Friday, 23 May, US President Trump revived his hawkish tariff rhetoric toward the European Union, threatening to impose a 50% tariff on all EU imports as of 1 June before deciding to extend the deadline until 9 July, as reported by media on Monday, 26 May, early Asian session.
In addition, a potential 25% tariff on foreign-made smartphones, including those from Apple and Samsung. These latest remarks from Trump signalled that the “trade tension escalation” is back.
Let’s review the latest USD/CHF technical chart to assess its medium-term trend bias and key levels to watch for the week.
If you would like to understand more about JPY, do check out our previous article on An introduction to the Japanese Yen.
Fig 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 23 May 2025 (Source: TradingView).
Fig 2: USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 23 May 2025 (Source: TradingView).
The recent 5.4% rally seen in the USD/CHF from its 52-week low of 0.8040 printed on 21 April to its 13 May high of 0.8477 is likely a minor corrective rebound within its medium-term downtrend phase that is still intact from its 3 February 2025 swing high (see Fig. 2).
Two key technical elements support the idea that the corrective rebound may have ended, and the price actions of USD/CHF are set to resume a potential multi-week impulsive down move sequence.
Firstly, USD/CHF dropped back below its 20-day moving average on 21 May and confirmed a bearish rejection from that level on 23 May. Secondly, the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out a bearish momentum condition reading since 23 May.
Watch the 0.8310 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) on the USD/CHF, with the next supports coming in at 0.8115, 0.8040, and 0.7980.
However, a clearance above 0.8310 may negate the bearish tone to expose the next medium-term resistance at 0.8470/8510 (also the 50-day moving average and the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel).
