Chart of the week by OANDA- Technical analysis of US Nasdaq 100 highlights a potential minor bearish top and increased volatility.
Chart of the week – Potential minor bearish reversal in US Nasdaq 100
The high-growth, technology-centric US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index was featured in our prior “Chart of the week – US Nasdaq 100 bullish breakout above 200-day moving average”, published on 14 May 2025.
Since our last publication, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has rallied by 4.2% to print an intraday high of 22,074 on last Wednesday, 11 June.
Interestingly, three key technical elements have emerged to suggest that a minor bearish top may have formed on 11 June, where the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index could see a bearish reversal to initiate a potential minor downtrend phase.
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Fig 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 13 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have plummeted by -1.2% on last Friday, 13 June, which erased all the gains made earlier since Monday, 9 June, reinforced by a resurgence of risk-off sentiment over Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets.
It has shaped a bearish breakdown below a minor “Ascending Wedge” bearish reversal configuration and staged a bearish reaction in the last four hours of last Friday’s US session at its pull-back resistance level of 21,840.
The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator printed a series of “lower highs” since 12 June and inched below the 50 level. So far, it has not yet reached its oversold region (below 30), which suggests a potential bearish momentum condition.
The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN), a measurement of 30-day implied volatility in the Nasdaq 100 index from prices of near-term Nasdaq 100 options, staged a bullish breakout to 22.04 after it hit a three-month low of 18.74 on 5 June. These observations suggest a sudden surge of “fear” after a period of lull, which in turn may trigger potential negative feedback into the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index.
Watch the 22,050 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below the 21,500 near-term support (also the 20-day moving average) may expose the next supports at 21,060 and 20,690 (close to the key 200-day moving average).
However, a clearance above 22,050 invalidates the bearish scenario for a retest at the 22,250 all-time high level, and a break above it sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at 22,530 (a Fibonacci extension level).
