October outlook. Nasdaq and gold bullish trend. Germany 30 catches up.

• US Nasdaq 100: Medium-term uptrend remains intact above 23,870, supported by strong Q3 earnings growth in the Information Technology sector (+20.9% y/y), with key resistances ahead at 25,270/25,370 and 25,840/26,080.
• Germany 30 (DAX): Laggard performance in September (-1.2% MTD) but showing signs of momentum revival; key resistance at 24,670, with potential breakout towards the next resistance zone at 25,360/25,700.
• Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish acceleration continues with a new all-time high at US$3,820; next resistances at US$3,890 and US$4,084/4,122, while key support remains at US$3,500.

For October, we will focus on three markets: US Nasdaq 100, Germany 30, and an update on Gold (XAU/USD) to take note of in the medium-term horizon (multi-week), according to the latest developments in momentum (technical analysis) factors.

The US stock market is going to get livelier from mid-October as we kickstart the third quarter earnings reporting session. Based on the latest data and report compiled by FactSet as of 26 September 2025, the estimated year-on-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at 7.9% y/y, higher than the previous estimated rate of 7.3% compiled on 30 June 2025.

If 7.9% y/y is the actual growth rate in Q3 2025, it will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the S&P 500.

Eight of the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500 are expected to report year-on-year earnings growth, led by the Information Technology sector with a projected Q3 2025 earnings growth of 20.9% y/y, a 5-percentage point increase from 15.7% y/y estimated earlier on 30 June 2025 (see Fig. 1).

The top three biggest market cap stocks of the S&P 500 Information Technology are Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, which also have a combined weightage of around 27% in the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s now examine the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective.

The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have managed to oscillate within a multi-month ascending channel since the 19 June 2025 low of 21,449 and traded above its 50-day moving average after a retest of it on 2 September 2025 (see Fig. 2).

In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator has managed to remain above its ascending support at the 60 level, which suggests that medium-term upside momentum is likely intact.

All these observations suggest that the medium-term uptrend phase of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index remains intact. Watch the 23,870 key medium-term pivotal support for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 25,270/25,370 and 25,840/26,080 (Fibonacci extension cluster).

However, a break below 23,870 key medium-term support invalidates the bullish scenario for a setback towards the next medium-term support at 23,160. A break below 23,160 may see a deeper corrective decline to expose the 22,095 long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average)

The German stock market has been a laggard behind its global peers (US stock indices, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, and Japan’s Nikkei 225) since the start of September 2025. Based on the month-to-date performance as of 26 September 2025, Germany’s DAX has recorded a loss of 1.2% (see Fig. 3).

Since its current all-time high of 24,670 printed on 10 July 2025, the price actions of the Germany 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the DAX futures) have evolved into a sideways range configuration.

Interestingly, the medium-term bullish momentum condition is showing a revival sign as the daily RSI momentum indicator has staged a recent rebound after a retest on its ascending support at the 37 level and inched back towards the 50 level at the time of writing.

Watch 23,020 key medium-term pivotal support on the Germany 30 CFD Index, and a clearance above the 24,030 intermediate resistance (also the 50-day moving average) sees a test on the 24,670 range resistance of the multi-month sideways configuration since 10 July 2025 (see Fig. 4).

A bullish breakout above 24,670 sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at 25,360/25,700 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster).

On the other hand, failure to hold at the 23,020 key medium-term support invalidates the recovery scenario for a deeper corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 22,240 and 21,600.

This is an update to our prior “Monthly Tactical Views (Sep) – A Fed dovish pivot lifts Gold (XAU/USD), Chinese equities, and US small-caps”.

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a bullish move and traded above the US$3,716/3,750 resistance as highlighted in our prior publication. The precious yellow metal printed a fresh intraday all-time high of US$3,820 on Monday, 29 September 2025, at the time of writing.

The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to inch higher above its signal line, which suggests Gold (XAU/USD) may be undergoing a bullish acceleration phase.

Watch the US$3,500 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average) for the next medium-term resistances to come in at US$3,890 and US$4,084/4.122 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 5).

On the flip side, a break below the US$3,500 key medium-term support invalidates the bullish scenario for a multi-week corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at US$3,274 and US$3,177 (also the 200-day moving average).